When charges from the Workplace of the US Commerce Consultant (USTR) concentrating on Chinese language dominance of the maritime sector come into impact October 14, 2025, 35% of ships within the mixed bulk, crude tanker, product tanker and container fleet could possibly be topic to extra charges when calling a US port. Regardless that these ships present 44% of the mixed fleet’s capability, US importers and exporters mustn’t anticipate growing freight charges,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Delivery Analyst at BIMCO.
Of the ships that could possibly be topic to the port charges, 70% are both Chinese language owned or operated whereas 30% are in-built China. Greater than half of the Chinese language constructed ships are exempt as a consequence of their dimension or US possession.
“Bulk carriers are extra uncovered to the growing prices as 45% of the ships could possibly be topic to the USTR charges. As a result of extra ships are exempt, or as a result of fewer ships are Chinese language owned or operated, solely 30% of crude tanker and container ships, and 19% of product tankers, could possibly be topic to the charges when arriving at a US port,” says Rasmussen.
Though between 19% and 45% of bulkers and tankers could possibly be topic to the charges, the worldwide affect could also be minimal. Up to now this yr, the US markets make up solely 9-19% of every sector’s world ship demand and solely 16-24% of US exports and imports have traditionally been catered to by ships that might face USTR charges.
Whereas future redeployment may cut back the publicity, a overview of the deliberate sailings on east/west container trades by the ten largest operators reveal that lower than 20% of ships scheduled to name the US could be topic to the brand new charges. Most of these ships are owned or operated by COSCO Delivery Strains or Orient Abroad Container Line or owned by Chinese language leasing banks. Regardless of this, COSCO Delivery Strains has dedicated to sustaining providers and aggressive charges whereas a number of different liner operators have already confirmed that the charges won’t result in freight surcharges.
“As a number of liner operators have already dedicated to not enhance charges and COSCO Delivery Strains doubtless should comply with swimsuit to stay aggressive, we anticipate no freight price will increase within the container market. Within the bulker and tanker sectors, we anticipate that almost all ships topic to USTR charges will go away US trades as they can not stay aggressive. Freight price will increase will due to this fact doubtless be prevented in these sectors as nicely. Implementation confusion may, nonetheless, trigger price will increase within the short-term,” says Rasmussen.
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