Stock Photo: SOMKIET POOMSIRIPAIBOON \/ Shutterstock<\/p>\n
Global Oil Flows Plunge as Hormuz Disruption Chokes Tanker Trade<\/p>\n
Global seaborne crude oil shipments have fallen 16% since the start of the Iran war, according to the\u00a0BIMCO, highlighting the scale of disruption rippling through energy and tanker markets as traffic through the<\/p>\n
remains severely constrained.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis represents a reduction of 7.6 million barrels per day\u2026 to 38.4 mbpd,\u201d said<\/p>\n
Chief Shipping Analyst\u00a0Niels Rasmussen, noting that flows over the past six weeks have likewise remained 16% below last year\u2019s levels.<\/p>\n
That drop means roughly\u00a09.5% of expected global crude production is currently not reaching markets, based on earlier projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration prior to start of the conflict.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe reduction in shipments has naturally been driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz,\u201d Rasmussen added.<\/p>\n
Gulf Exports Collapse Despite Workarounds<\/p>\n
The disruption is most visible in the Persian Gulf, where seaborne crude shipments have dropped sharply: down\u00a012.7 mbpd\u00a0versus early 2026 levels, marking a net decline of\u00a09.0 mbpd\u00a0after partial rerouting.<\/p>\n
Some producers have managed limited workarounds. \u201cThe United Arab Emirates has managed to increase loadings from ports east of the Strait of Hormuz by 0.7 mbpd while Saudi Arabia has increased shipments from Yanbu in the Red Sea by 3.0 mbpd,\u201d says Rasmussen. However, those gains have been nowhere near enough to offset lost Gulf flows.<\/p>\n
Outside the region, supply response has also been muted. Global exports have risen just 1.4 mbpd, led largely by Venezuela (+0.4 mbpd) and Russian Black Sea shipments (+0.8 mbpd), with India absorbing much of the redirected crude.<\/p>\n
Ceasefire Fails to Restart Flows<\/p>\n
Despite a recent slight uptick in tanker transits, traffic through Hormuz has yet to recover in any meaningful way. Global oil flows through Hormuz have collapsed from more than 20 million bpd pre-conflict to just a fraction of that level, contributing to one of the largest supply disruptions on record.<\/p>\n
All Eyes on Hormuz as U.S. Maritime Blockade on Iran Enters Enforcement Phase<\/p>\n
The situation could deteriorate further with U.S. enforcement of its<\/p>\n
targeting vessels linked to Iranian ports, which risks tightening flows even more, particularly if operators remain unwilling to re-enter the region.<\/p>\n
Structural Damage Points to Long Recovery<\/p>\n
Even if the strait fully reopens, BIMCO warns that a quick rebound is unlikely.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, it may take a long time for crude oil and other energy shipments to return to previous volumes,\u201d Rasmussen said, citing damage to regional energy infrastructure particularly in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which has lost nearly one-fifth of its LNG output.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the same time, refinery capacity of about 2.4 mbpd is currently estimated to be offline,\u201d says Rasmussen.<\/p>\n