Strait of Hormuz: Crude at Sea, Reopening Impact, and Latest Vessel Movements<\/p>\n
Based on our vessel and commodity tracking data, we currently estimate that between 15 and 16 million metric tons of crude oil are held aboard vessels within the Persian (Arabian) Gulf.<\/p>\n
Applying a typical conversion factor for Middle Eastern crude grades (around 7.2\u20137.25 barrels per metric ton), this equates to approximately 108\u2013116 million barrels currently at sea within the Gulf.<\/p>\n
At pre-conflict throughput levels of 15\u201320 million barrels per day through the Strait of Hormuz, this seaborne inventory could, in purely mechanical terms, transit the Strait within roughly 6\u20138 days following a full reopening.<\/p>\n
However, physical delivery to end markets in Asia would lag materially. Typical voyage times imply:<\/p>\n
~2 weeks to southern China<\/p>\n
~3 weeks to northern China and Japan<\/p>\n
At the same time, terminal activity would likely resume alongside any reopening, adding fresh loading volumes on top of the existing seaborne backlog. As a result, outbound flows would scale gradually rather than clear immediately.<\/p>\n
Latest observed vessel movements (AIS-derived)<\/p>\n
Despite the reopening announcement, tanker activity over the past 24 hours remains limited and highly fragmented.<\/p>\n
Crude \/ product tankers:<\/p>\n
4 small asphalt\/bitumen tankers observed, all in the 2,000\u20138,000 DWT range<\/p>\n
1 mid-size chemical\/product tanker (~50,000 DWT)<\/p>\n
Majority outbound (west \u2192 east)<\/p>\n
Limited inbound movements<\/p>\n
Predominantly opaque or sanctioned-linked entities<\/p>\n
No evidence of mainstream commercial operators returning<\/p>\n
No VLCCs or large crude tankers transiting outbound, indicating no material crude volumes moving<\/p>\n
LPG carriers (most active segment):<\/p>\n
5 LPG carriers transited within ~24 hours<\/p>\n
3 outbound (west \u2192 east)<\/p>\n
2 inbound (east \u2192 west)<\/p>\n
Deadweight range: ~26,000 \u2013 55,000 DWT<\/p>\n
Strong presence of sanctioned and ghost fleet-linked vessels<\/p>\n
One unit reappeared after an extended AIS blackout period<\/p>\n
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