Drone view of oil tanker HELGA berthed at one of Iraq’s southern offshore oil terminals near Basra as it prepares to load crude oil, becoming the second vessel to arrive since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, April 24, 2026. REUTERS\/Mohammed Aty<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s Hormuz Blockade Has Deepened A Historic Shipping Crisis<\/p>\n
Apr 26, 2026 (Bloomberg) \u2013In early April \u2014 after a month of disruption around one of the world\u2019s most important energy chokepoints \u2014 US President Donald Trump wrote that with \u201ca little ?more time, we can easily OPEN THE ?HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A ?FORTUNE.\u201d<\/p>\n
Three weeks on, transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has instead become virtually impossible for the first time in history. Trump has imposed a US blockade of<\/p>\n
, Tehran is using its\u00a0\u201cmosquito fleet\u201d\u00a0of gunboats to<\/p>\n
close down the waterway<\/p>\n
in response \u2014 and shipowners say a return to normal shipments is months away, at best.<\/p>\n
The Hormuz Hypothesis \u2013 What If the U.S. Navy Isn\u2019t in a Hurry to Reopen the Strait?<\/p>\n
Daily transits, already limited since the start of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, are<\/p>\n
. That compares to a peacetime average of around 135.<\/p>\n
For weeks, vessel owners and crews had to deal with one major hurdle to attempt an exit: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as Tehran tightened control of the strait. They now have US warships interdicting vessels \u2014 some far from the Persian Gulf \u2014 and increasingly unpredictable Iranian gunboats, reacting.<\/p>\n
US Says Navy Intercepted Iran-Linked Vessel in Arabian Sea<\/p>\n
Several shipping officials in the region said the US blockade has had the effect of making the area more volatile, as Iran redoubles efforts to keep the strait shut.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat the US is doing, with its<\/p>\n
, looks to be expanding the area\u201d of risk for ships, said Rajalingam Subramaniam, chief executive officer at Fleet Management Limited, which has more than 400 seafarers trapped inside the gulf. \u201cThere\u2019s this posturing going on, and it has actually created more uncertainty.\u201d<\/p>\n
A narrow maritime corridor connecting oil and gas producers in the gulf with the world, Hormuz has become the key flashpoint in the eight-week war with Iran \u2014 a daily reminder of the country\u2019s asymmetric ability to impose global economic pain, and a symbol of the intractable nature of the conflict, as both sides dig in.<\/p>\n
\u201cHormuz is definitely a tool of leverage and a metric of whether Iranian responses are coordinated,\u201d said Rachel Ziemba, senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. \u201cThe<\/p>\n
was partly implemented to block Iran\u2019s leverage, but ultimately Iran has some space and recent revenue to buy itself some time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s resilience is built on years of self-reliance, a regime structured to withstand shocks and income from recent oil shipments. The global economy has less time at its disposal.<\/p>\n
Each passing day increases the<\/p>\n
financial impact of the conflict<\/p>\n
, not only for import-dependent Asia but for the world \u2014<\/p>\n
\u2014 as shortages and price spikes ripple through energy markets and global supply chains.<\/p>\n
Crude output from the Persian Gulf nations \u2014 some of the world\u2019s most important suppliers \u2014 is already 57% below where it was before the war,\u00a0according to\u00a0Goldman Sachs analysts including Daan Struyven. Convalescence, even after a full reopening of the strait, could take months. \u201cThe recovery may be only partial after a prolonged closure,\u201d they wrote in a note last week.<\/p>\n
Demand destruction has already begun in gas markets, while fertilizer shortages will\u00a0impact\u00a0food production and prices for much of the rest of the year and beyond.<\/p>\n
A long conflict also increases the challenge of unpicking a Gordian knot of Trump\u2019s creation, with fresh<\/p>\n
negotiations\u00a0yet to be\u00a0agreed<\/p>\n
\u201cWe were hoping that this would come to an end relatively quickly in short term,\u201d said Jotaro Tamura, president and chief executive officer of Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. \u201cBut by having this situation for over more than seven weeks now, I think it\u2019s realistic that we should expect that the resolution will take some time.\u201d<\/p>\n
The world, he said in Singapore last week, will\u00a0not return\u00a0to what it used to be.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s Hormuz Grip Is Tighter Than Ever After a Month of War<\/p>\n
Transits through Hormuz slowed dramatically almost immediately after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran at the end of February.<\/p>\n
Workarounds soon began to emerge, though, including bilateral deals to secure safe passage for some carriers, and an idiosyncratic Iranian\u00a0payment system.<\/p>\n
, meanwhile, made it through, adding some barrels to the market.<\/p>\n
A tentative ceasefire in early April cheered Western vessel owners, with A.P. Moller-Maersk A\/S, the world\u2019s second-largest container liner, saying it was studying \u201ctransit opportunities\u201d. On April 11,\u00a0three supertankers\u00a0exited, marking the largest number of non-Iranian oil exits since the war began.<\/p>\n
Then, Trump, frustrated at slow progress, announced his plan to blockade Iran.<\/p>\n
The calculus initially appeared to work. Iran\u00a0considered pausing\u00a0sending shipments through so as not to test US warships and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later announced that the country would\u00a0open\u00a0the strait. But Trump made no move to lift his own blockade \u2014 angering key groups in Tehran.<\/p>\n
What ensued last week were chaotic days of vessels being attacked and seized \u2014 in one case, a sanctioned oil tanker was boarded in waters east of Sri Lanka, widening the theater of operation. On Saturday, the US Navy\u00a0intercepted\u00a0a carrier in the Arabian Sea just one day after Washington sanctioned it.<\/p>\n
Iran War Leaves Seafarers Stranded In The Gulf<\/p>\n
For those who manage the hundreds of ships still stuck in the gulf, a lasting conflict poses another major concern \u2014 the 20,000<\/p>\n
Most are already working to provide relief through daily check-ins, counseling sessions, and simply by ensuring that they have sufficient food and water, according to shipowners and managers. Some crews have already been replaced as contracts come to an end, though finding new teams is challenging \u2014 and expensive.<\/p>\n
have been drawn up by some companies and even the\u00a0International Maritime Organization. Without an end to hostilities, however, those remain theoretical at best.<\/p>\n
\u201cToday we have no reassurance whatsoever from governments,\u201d said Alexander Saverys, chief executive officer of shipowner CMB.TECH. \u201cWe will only get that reassurance when we see that ships can pass through the strait in a safe and sustainable way.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a02026\u00a0Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n