Trump\u2019s Strait of Hormuz blockade hits Iran\u2019s oil trade<\/p>\n
A US naval blockade cuts off Iran\u2019s main source of hard currency by halting most of its oil exports. Will President Trump\u2019s pressure force Tehran back to negotiations or widen the conflict?<\/p>\n
How will Trump\u2019s blockade of Iranian oil work?<\/p>\n
After US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed at the weekend, US President Donald Trump said the US Navy would block ships entering or leaving any Iranian port or coastal facility via the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
Until the war began in late February, a fifth of the world\u2019s seaborne oil trade passed Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n
If successful, the blockade would sever Iran\u2019s main source of revenue by halting its nearly 2 million barrel-per-day oil export trade, which Trump is betting will force Tehran back to the negotiating table.<\/p>\n
US officials said the goal was to strip Iran of leverage gained from its control of the waterway, which Tehran effectively shut when the war began, stranding hundreds of oil and gas tankers.<\/p>\n
Trump also framed the blockade as preventing Tehran from charging up to $2 million (\u20ac1.71 million) per vessel for safe passage through the strait, according to reports.<\/p>\n
No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,\u201d Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday, adding that the US Navy would also \u201cbegin destroying the mines the Iranians laid\u201d in the strait.<\/p>\n
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM), which directs Washington\u2019s military forces, said the blockade would not affect vessels traveling to and from non-Iranian ports \u2014 like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates(UAE).<\/p>\n
How will the US Navy enforce the blockade?<\/p>\n
The operation, which began on Monday, was announced with a notice to mariners.<\/p>\n
CENTCOM said the blockade would be \u201cenforced in the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz\u201d and would include \u201cthe entirety of the Iranian coastline \u2026 not limited to ports and oil terminals.\u201d<\/p>\n
The advisory continued: \u201cAny vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion and capture.\u201d<\/p>\n
Maritime law experts said enforcement would rely on standard naval procedures known as the right of visit and search, where US warships stop and inspect tankers and can divert them if they are suspected of carrying Iranian oil.<\/p>\n
While the use of visit and search has precedent in naval warfare, several experts warned the blockade risked crossing into disputed territory under maritime law, affecting neutral ships and a long-term disruption of a critical international waterway.<\/p>\n
Within hours of the blockade starting, shipping data showed the trickle of tanker traffic through the strait had mostly halted. In an update on Tuesday, CENTCOM said no ships had made it past the blockade, while six vessels complied with orders to return to port.<\/p>\n
Trump earlier warned Iran against retaliation, insisting that the country\u2019s few remaining \u201cfast attack ships\u201d would be \u201celiminated\u201d if they approached the blockade.<\/p>\n
How quickly could the blockade hit Iran\u2019s oil exports?<\/p>\n
A US blockade could sharply curtail Iran\u2019s ability to load and ship crude from its main export terminal, Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf, which handles more than 90% of the country\u2019s oil shipments.<\/p>\n
Iran continues to export oil despite international sanctions tied to its nuclear program, relying on a shadow fleet of aging tankers, employing ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia and other evasion tactics.<\/p>\n
The US had also given Iran temporary permission to sell its oil as a measure to help stabilize markets during the ongoing conflict.<\/p>\n
The new naval blockade is set to make those loadings far riskier and less likely, as operators face the prospect of boarding, diversion or seizure.<\/p>\n
In 2025, Iran\u2019s oil exports totaled around $45 billion, or 13% of GDP, according to London-based Capital Economics. With no land pipelines to divert crude supplies, Iran has few other non-sea export options. Even its Jask export terminal on the Gulf of Oman could still be searched by the US Navy.<\/p>\n
Sustained US pressure could force Tehran to quickly return to the negotiating table as it loses this revenue.<\/p>\n
Could the blockade lead to a wider conflict?<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s blockade threat was met with threats of retaliation by Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard Corps.<\/p>\n
It declared that if Iranian ports faced restrictions, \u201cno port in the Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe,\u201d raising fears of strikes on energy or shipping infrastructure in Gulf neighbors.<\/p>\n
Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for the Iranian parliament\u2019s National Security Commission, also warned that Tehran was prepared to respond militarily if necessary.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt will make the current situation [Trump] is in more complicated and makes the market \u2014 which he is angry about \u2014 more turbulent,\u201d wrote Rezaei on X. \u201cAnd we may also reveal other cards that we have not used in the game.\u201d<\/p>\n
Several US experts have questioned Trump\u2019s move, saying he may be drawing the US into an open-ended military commitment.<\/p>\n
\u201cTrump wants a quick fix. The reality is, this mission is difficult to execute alone and likely unsustainable over the medium to long term,\u201d Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon official during the Biden administration, told Reuters news agency.<\/p>\n
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, wrote that the blockade \u201cmay also be designed to pressure Beijing into playing a more active role in mediating a ceasefire and reopening full trade flows through the strait.\u201d<\/p>\n
Next to Iran, Chinastands to lose the most economically from a blockade, since it has bought up 80-90% of Iran\u2019s seaborne crude exports in recent years.<\/p>\n
Shearing also wondered whether the US Navy would seize allied ships that paid tolls to Tehran or Chinese vessels in the strait, saying either would represent a \u201csignificant escalation.\u201d<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, China\u2019s Foreign Ministry denounced the blockade as \u201cdangerous and irresponsible,\u201d while President Xi Jinping said Beijing was willing to play a \u201cconstructive role\u201d in promoting peace in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
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