Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near Bandar Abbas, Iran, May 4, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi\/ISNA\/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s Iran Strategy Collides with Hormuz Reality<\/p>\n
By\u00a0Eric Martin and Magdalena Del Valle (Bloomberg) \u2014 President Donald Trump has changed his approach as he tries to end the war against Iran: reopen the<\/p>\n
at all costs and leave thorny negotiations on Tehran\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile programs until later.<\/p>\n
That strategy has seen the ceasefire between the US and Iran tested as the two sides traded fire in recent days after Trump ordered US warships to provide cover for merchant vessels transiting the strait, and then<\/p>\n
abruptly shelved \u201cProject Freedom\u201d on Tuesday<\/p>\n
. Iran also targeted oil facilities in the nearby United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n
While Trump has repeatedly said eliminating Iran\u2019s nuclear program is the main justification for the conflict in the Middle East, the vital waterway for oil and gas flows has emerged as a far more pressing facet of the conflict \u2014 and a key source of leverage for Tehran as diplomacy continues.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Trump administration just desperately wants out of this war, and the sole objective that they now really have is establishing some navigation within the strait,\u201d said David Tannenbaum, a director at Blackstone Compliance Services, a consulting firm focused on sanctions. \u201cI\u2019m even wondering if Iran\u2019s nuclear program is actually on the table.\u201d<\/p>\n
The administration said it is.<\/p>\n
\u201cPresident Trump has all the cards as negotiations continue, and he wisely keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon,\u201d White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales told Bloomberg.<\/p>\n
With global energy prices soaring, US officials said this week the war against Iran is formally over with the ceasefire in place and talks ongoing, despite the repeated clashes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters this week the US wants to push back negotiations to free up Hormuz.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat the president would prefer is a deal,\u201d Rubio told reporters at the White House. \u201cHe would prefer to sit down, work out a memorandum of understanding for future negotiations that touches on all the key topics that have to be addressed. A full opening of the Straits so the world can get back to normal.\u201d<\/p>\n
But events of recent days have shown how much events in the region can spin out of Trump\u2019s control. On Tuesday evening when he paused \u201cProject Freedom,\u201d Trump said the two sides were close to a deal. He was basing that on a one-page memo to the Islamic Republic that aimed to reopen the strait but delay much trickier negotiations, and later demanded that Iran deliver an answer to its diplomatic offer on Friday.<\/p>\n
On Thursday evening, the US said Navy ships moving in the strait were<\/p>\n
attacked by Iranian drones and missiles<\/p>\n
, prompting fresh US salvos at launch sites on Iranian soil. And on Friday, Navy F\/A-18 Super Hornets fired on and<\/p>\n
Iranian-flagged commercial vessels \u2014 after hitting another vessel on Thursday \u2014 as part of the blockade designed to pressure Tehran into caving and reopening the strait.<\/p>\n
While the stakes this time are higher, Trump\u2019s approach has parallels with other conflicts he\u2019s attempted to resolve, according to former US officials and critics.<\/p>\n
One risk now is Trump\u2019s team \u2014 facing pressure over US gas prices ahead of the midterm elections \u2014 pursues a deal similar to the one in Gaza. That won plaudits for ending a war between Israel and Hamas but put off difficult issues including the militant group\u2019s disarmament \u2014 which still hasn\u2019t been resolved seven months later.<\/p>\n
\u201cPresident Trump does not follow through,\u201d said Asl? Ayd?nta?ba?, an expert on the Middle East at the Brookings Institution. \u201cHis foreign policy has been upside down: declare victory and hope it all works out. But in most places it hasn\u2019t.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner secured a Gaza truce but were quickly deployed elsewhere while progress in Gaza stalled. The two men were eventually dispatched for talks with Iran, which ended with a surprise US bombing campaign alongside Israel.<\/p>\n
As a result, Iran\u2019s leaders are wary of discussions with the US, and have shown little sign of yielding on Iran\u2019s nuclear program or accepting a moratorium on enriching uranium, both top US demands.<\/p>\n
In fact, they\u2019ve doubled down on controlling Hormuz: collecting tolls and insisting at the United Nations they have a right over the waterway lapping at their coastline, unlike the distant US. Tehran on Wednesday\u00a0laid out\u00a0new protocols for ships in the waterway.<\/p>\n
Supporters of Trump\u2019s war point to Iran\u2019s decimated navy and air force as evidence the conflict has weakened Washington\u2019s geopolitical foe. Yet the current US diplomatic overture skips previous priorities such as Iran\u2019s missiles and support for proxy groups, and prioritizes the strait \u2014 which was functioning normally before the war.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran has established a chokehold over the global economy,\u201d said Michael Carpenter, a former White House official in the Biden administration now at the International Institute of Strategic Studies. \u201cThe US is now scrambling just to restore the status quo ante by reopening the strait.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u00a9\u00a02026\u00a0Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n