North America container market split on peak\u2011season outlook as capacity tightens, fuel drives pricing<\/p>\n
North America\u2019s container market is sending conflicting signals heading into mid\u2011May, with some forwarders reporting early signs of peak\u2011season strength, including tight space, and strong bookings, while others say demand remains too soft to justify general rate increases.<\/p>\n
The result is a market divided between early\u2011peak optimism and fuel\u2011driven caution, even as carriers continue to manage capacity aggressively across all major coasts.<\/p>\n
Forwarders say they are still finalizing contracts and \u201ctransitioning into getting the business moving,\u201d but few are willing to call a clear upswing.<\/p>\n
Another freight forwarder described being \u201cback and forth on a May rebound,\u201d noting that the early\u2011May holiday period in Asia has slowed cargo readiness and could delay any bounce\u2011back until later in the month.<\/p>\n
Capacity tightening across all US coasts<\/p>\n
Carriers have kept supply tight across the PSW, PNW, and USEC, relying on blank sailings and smaller vessels to manage capacity even as demand remains insufficient to support broad rate increases.<\/p>\n
On the West Coast, there were six blank sailings in the first week of May and seven expected in the second week. Additionally, on the East Coast, there were four to five blank sailings per week, which kept weekly capacity constrained.<\/p>\n
Ocean Alliance carriers report full vessels and growing roll pools, with some of the tightest conditions on Panama\u2011route services. \u201cThey\u2019re full,\u201d one forwarder said, adding that May 1 increases were applied mainly by Premier Alliance carriers with limited space.<\/p>\n
Another source said June allocations are already full, with bookings strong enough that \u201cthere\u2019s no space in the next two weeks,\u201d even though overall demand remains far from peak\u2011season levels.<\/p>\n
New signals: Early peak\u2011season chatter<\/p>\n
A separate forwarder said they are now hearing about extra loaders on the trans\u2011Pacific, including indications that Maersk has announced one, though details remain limited. Despite that, the source said space remains very tight, and multiple carriers are preparing GRIs in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n
\u201cSame here too,\u201d the source said. \u201cSpace is tight, and GRI\u2019s are coming \u2014 but demand hasn\u2019t changed at all.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yet this same source reported a sharp uptick among their own customer base, \u201cDemand is going up a lot among our clients and prospects.\u201d<\/p>\n
When asked whether this could signal the start of peak season, the source said peak season had already started.<\/p>\n
They expect the season to officially begin June 1, with the potential to extend deeper into summer depending on war\u2011related disruptions, interest\u2011rate movements, oil prices, and tariff stability. \u201cTariffs stabilizing also helps,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n
Mixed bookings, no pushback<\/p>\n
A Canadian\u2011based source offered a notably different view of the market, reporting no pushback on current levels and saying opportunity rates remain high.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey\u2019re thinking it\u2019s an indication the market is strong and pushing for more,\u201d the source said, though they added they \u201chaven\u2019t heard the higher numbers\u201d circulating elsewhere.<\/p>\n
This perspective stands in contrast to US\u2011based forwarders who say demand is not strong enough to justify GRIs.<\/p>\n
Across the market, sources emphasized that fuel is the only real driver of pricing right now.<\/p>\n
Carriers\u2019 May 1 actions \u2014 including all\u2011in fuel adjustments \u2014 were described as \u201coutright for fuel,\u201d with many lines shifting to monthly bunker programs on the trans\u2011Pacific. Some carriers are rolling fuel into ocean freight on FAK business, while others are breaking it out separately, creating wide variation in all\u2011in levels.<\/p>\n
One source noted that while carriers are pushing a May 15 increase, it is expected to be small and driven entirely by fuel. \u201cThere\u2019s nothing driving application for a GRI,\u201d the source said. \u201cDemand isn\u2019t enough.\u201d<\/p>\n
Spot container rates have already started to increase as Platts assessed North Asia to West Coast North America at $2,900\/FEU May 12, up $100 on the day.<\/p>\n
The North Asia to East Coast North America rates also rose $100 on the day to $3,900\/FEU.<\/p>\n
Little rate movement as shippers stick with existing contracts<\/p>\n
Shippers are extending old contracts, with little movement in base rates. Across the board, forwarders report highly variant all\u2011in pricing due to fuel surcharges and other add\u2011ons \u2014 a trend more pronounced in long\u2011term negotiations.<\/p>\n
\u201cEveryone has these additional add\u2011ons,\u201d one freight forwarder said. \u201cIt\u2019s more prevalent on long\u2011term rate talks than on Freight of All Kind.\u201d<\/p>\n
Despite the noise around capacity, most forwarders say space is available for those booking early. \u201cThe industry is booking well enough ahead,\u201d one source said. \u201cThat\u2019s why vessels look full.\u201d<\/p>\n
Market sentiment remains cautious with no market participants expects a strong peak season, and several said they do not believe 2026 will outperform 2025. \u201cIt\u2019ll be flat or below,\u201d one forwarder said.<\/p>\n
While some expect a modest bounce after the May holiday period, others see no evidence of a surge forming.<\/p>\n
\u201cNo one\u2019s talking about surging,\u201d a forwarder said. \u201cEveryone\u2019s talking about fuel.\u201d<\/p>\n
The combination of tight capacity, fuel\u2011driven pricing, and uncertain demand has left the market split \u2014 with some carriers reporting strong bookings and others seeing little justification for rate hikes \u2014 and waiting to see whether late May or June brings a measurable pickup.<\/p>\n
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