Dry bulk market update: How Cape & Panamax freight markets are repricing under the new coal trade map<\/p>\n
Cape Atlantic & Pacific and Panamax Pacific all printing higher rates. Supply is being absorbed.<\/p>\n
Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed thermal coal demand toward seaborne Asia. Panamax Pacific the immediate beneficiary.<\/p>\n
Russia \u2192 Asia coal corridor<\/p>\n
April 2026 record high. Russian coal (97.8% of origins) flowing to N.China, S.China & India. Indo\u2192N.China Panamax tonne-miles \u221240% MoM; AUS\u2192S.China Capes +212%.<\/p>\n
Older Panamax tonnage outperforming. 15Y & 20Y up +33% YoY while newbuild prices are down \u22125%.<\/p>\n
Freight \u00b7 Capesize Atlantic<\/p>\n
C3 Capes to ECSA \u2014 ballast surplus falling, rates spiking<\/p>\n
175 vessels \u00b7 latest gross supply (90.3% ballast)<\/p>\n
WoW \u00b7 Ballast \u22123 \/ Laden +6<\/p>\n
MoM \u00b7 Ballast +2 \/ Laden 0<\/p>\n
YoY \u00b7 0 ballast \/ Laden +3<\/p>\n
P5 Panamax to Indo \u2014 Hormuz reshuffle pricing in<\/p>\n
313 vessels \u00b7 latest gross supply (52.2% ballast)<\/p>\n
WoW \u00b7 Ballast +28 \/ Laden +7<\/p>\n
MoM \u00b7 Ballast +33 \/ Laden \u22127<\/p>\n
YoY \u00b7 Ballast +2 \/ Laden \u22125<\/p>\n
Russian coal \u2014 April record on Pacific exports<\/p>\n
Panamax share of flow<\/p>\n
Top destinations: 17.1% N. China \u00b7 16.2% S. China \u00b7 11.0% E.C. India \u00b7 9.4% Korea \u00b7 6.7% E. Med \u00b7 5.4% Pak\/WC India<\/p>\n
April 2026 Russian coal exports hit 7.8M t, a new record (+18.8% YoY). 62.7% out of Russian Pacific, 38.4% on Panamax.<\/p>\n
Trade Flows \u00b7 Coal Re-mapping<\/p>\n
Indo\u2192N.China fading \u00b7 AUS\u2192S.China surging<\/p>\n
Indo\u2192N.China Panamax \u00b7 tonne-miles MoM<\/p>\n
Indo\u2192N.China Panamax \u00b7 tonne-days MoM<\/p>\n
AUS East\u2192S.China Cape \u00b7 tonne-miles MoM<\/p>\n
AUS East\u2192C.China Cape \u00b7 tonne-days MoM<\/p>\n
Panamax \u00b7 Indo \u2192 N.China<\/p>\n
Rainfall fell, exports fell more<\/p>\n
June 2025 marked the cycle low for Indonesian coal exports to China at 11.13 Mt. Sangatta rainfall had eased to 92 mm from the March peak of 168 mm, yet exports kept declining. If weather were binding, the low would have aligned with peak rain in March or April.<\/p>\n
The H2 2025 recovery confirms the divergence: November\u2013December volumes exceeded 2024 levels despite rainfall rising again to 166 mm in November. April 2026 flows at 11.6 Mt sit just above the previous cycle low.<\/p>\n
Weather is not the binding factor. Indonesia\u2013China coal weakness is driven by Jakarta\u2019s Q1 2025 policy tightening and China\u2019s domestic coal substitution.<\/p>\n
Asset Values \u00b7 Panamax<\/p>\n
Older tonnage outperforming<\/p>\n
Age band Price (USD M) YoY<\/p>\n
Momentum shift: 15Y & 20Y up +33% YoY \u2014 steepest among age categories \u2014 while newbuild values slip \u22125%. Buyers are paying up for earnings now rather than for delivery in 2027+. Freight strength is now reflected in secondhand and aged-vessel valuations.<\/p>\n
Cape basins are firm on both sides \u2014 C3 ~$37\/mt, C5 ~$15\/mt.<\/p>\n
Panamax Pacific lift is policy-driven \u2014 Hormuz disruption is the spark for the P5 move. Sustainability depends on whether coal redirection persists past the immediate crisis window.<\/p>\n
Trade map is rotating, not growing \u2014 Indo\u2192N.China Panamax coal is bleeding tonne-days; AUS East\u2192S.China net ton-mile effect is Cape-bullish.<\/p>\n
Vintage Panamax tonnage is the value trade \u2014 15Y\/20Y +33% YoY while newbuild prices soften \u2014 an unusual inversion of the age curve.<\/p>\n
hellenicshippingnews…<\/p>\n