FILE PHOTO: People walk past a logo of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) during the annual energy industry event Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, November 3, 2025. REUTERS\/Amr Alfiky\/File Photo<\/p>\n
No Full\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0Flows Until First Half of 2027, UAE\u2019s Oil Giant Says<\/p>\n
DUBAI, May 21 (Reuters)\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Full oil flows through the Strait of\u00a0Hormuz\u00a0will not return before the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended now, the head of the United Arab Emirates\u2019 state oil firm ADNOC said.<\/p>\n
The outlook is among the most pessimistic by top industry executives and underscores the prolonged economic impact of the<\/p>\n
which has triggered what the International Energy Agency has called the largest ever energy crisis because of the near-closure of the strait.<\/p>\n
Iran has established de facto control over the waterway, a chokepoint for about a fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply.\u00a0The resulting surge in energy prices has pushed inflation higher and fanned fears of an economic downturn.<\/p>\n
\u201cEven if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80% of pre-conflict flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027,\u201d ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber said during a Atlantic Council event\u00a0on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
JABER CALLS\u00a0HORMUZ\u00a0BLOCKADE A \u2018DANGEROUS PRECEDENT\u2019<\/p>\n
The chief executive of neighboring Saudi Arabia\u2019s oil giant Aramco, Amin Nasser, had warned the oil market may not recover until 2027 if the situation persists through mid-June.<\/p>\n
Iran is consolidating its control over the strait with checkpoints, vetting and sometimes fees, Reuters<\/p>\n
. Tehran began attacking vessels in the strait to impose a de facto blockade after the U.S.-Israeli assault against Iran began on February 28.<\/p>\n
Since then, Iran has expanded its definition of the waterway to include the UAE\u2019s Gulf of Oman coastline just outside the strait, which has emerged as a lifeline for the UAE. A crude pipeline that ends at the port of Fujairah, on that coastline, has kept some Emirati crude flowing to markets.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is not just an economic problem. In fact, this sets a dangerous precedent. Once you accept that a single country can hold the world\u2019s most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished,\u201d Jaber said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we don\u2019t defend this principle today, we will spend the next decade defending against the consequences.\u201d<\/p>\n
Jaber said the conflict highlighted supply chain fragility, noting fuel prices are up 30%, fertilizer prices have risen 50% and airfares are a quarter higher. He called for renewed investment to enhance global energy resilience.<\/p>\n
\u201cEvery farm, every factory, every family is paying the price, and the ones who are most vulnerable end up carrying the heaviest load,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cJust over 80 days into this conflict, and almost 80 countries have now taken emergency measures to support their own economies.\u201d<\/p>\n