Steve Gordon of Clarksons Research comments on recent market data points

Steve Gordon, International Head of Clarksons Analysis, issued a commentary on the event of the thirty sixth Nor-Delivery commerce exhibition held in Oslo this week. Reviewing current market knowledge factors, he mentioned:

Sixty years on from the primary Nor-Delivery, we count on international transport to maneuver 12.6bn tonnes of cargo in 2025 (1965: 1.8bn tonnes) supported by a fleet of two.5bn dwt (1965: 0.25bn dwt).
We undertaking shipbuilding output in 2025 will enhance 4% y-o-y to 74.1m GT (1965: ~13m GT).
We undertaking regional shipbuilding market shares in 2025 of 53% for China, 27% for South Korea, 14% for Japan, 4% for Europe and 0.1% for the US (1965: Europe (~45%), Japan (~44%), US (2%).
Newbuild ordering within the first 5 months of 2025 is down ~50% y-o-y as geo-political uncertainties impression, albeit from 2024 ranges that represented the strongest ordering yr since 2008 and with shipyards typically retaining very sturdy ahead orderbook protection.
The worldwide newbuilding orderbook stands at 164.4m CGT of $511.6bn, with sturdy orderbook backlogs in fuel, container and automotive provider and now with an bettering backlog for cruise.
Regardless of the present market concentrate on geo-political uncertainty and commerce disruption, transport’s Inexperienced Transition stays a vital underlying pattern with emissions regulation persevering with to be adopted, inexperienced know-how investments persevering with and powerful fleet renewal necessities from an ageing fleet.

As of 1st June, our newest knowledge factors counsel 52% of orderbook by tonnage (29% by quantity) is now various gasoline succesful, falling to 46% of capability if LNG carriers are excluded
Our knowledge reveals 1,397 vessels within the fleet / 1,020 on order are LNG twin gasoline succesful (756 / 683 if LNG Carriers are excluded), 63 within the fleet / 334 on order are methanol succesful, 4 within the fleet / 45 on order are ammonia succesful, and 697 within the fleet / 503 on order are battery-hybrid.
Our knowledge additionally reveals 854 vessels in fleet / 940 on order which have various gasoline “prepared” standing (577 LNG prepared ships within the fleet and 154 on the orderbook, whereas there are 304 ammonia prepared, 633 methanol prepared and 16 hydrogen prepared vessels on order, with some vessels having ‘multi-fuel’ prepared standing).
At the moment 8% of worldwide fleet carrying capability is various fuelled and we undertaking this to extend to twenty% by 2030 (2015: 1%).
With an ageing fleet (13.2 years on a GT weighted foundation, up from a low of 9.7 years in 2013), round a 3rd of fleet capability ranking D or E beneath CII final yr and lengthening lead occasions (yard orderbook ahead cowl: ~3.7 years) at main shipyards, retrofitting of Power Saving Applied sciences (ESTs) stays a vital a part of transport’s decarbonisation pathway. Important Power Saving Applied sciences (ESTs) have been fitted on over 12,115 ships, accounting for >41% of fleet tonnage: this consists of propeller ducts, rudder bulbs, Flettner rotors, wind kites, air lubrication techniques and others (>635 ships with air lubrication system and >145 models involving “wind” help within the fleet and orderbook). Our tracker additionally consists of 44 vessels within the fleet (plus 16 newbuild orders) testing onboard carbon seize know-how. In the meantime, the share of fleet that’s fitted with an “Eco” engine has risen to over 35%.
Investments in port infrastructure and the supply of “inexperienced” fuels proceed to lag, with our Inexperienced Expertise Tracker detailing 275 ports with LNG bunkering and 297 ports with shore energy connections in place or deliberate however solely 40 ports with methanol bunkering out there or deliberate.
We now estimate that transport’s international GHG emissions can have elevated by ~4% y-o-y in 2024 to over 1 billion tonnes of CO2e and over 2% of worldwide emissions on a WTW foundation and have moved above pre Covid-19 ranges, with a better proportion of time being spent at sea (amid Purple Sea re-routing), some will increase in pace (particularly within the container market, albeit we undertaking the underlying long run pattern for declining pace will proceed) and commerce development offsetting the rising share of different fuelled vessels, “eco” ships and tonnage with ESTs.

In 2025, 38% of worldwide seaborne commerce can be vitality cargo (4.6 bn tonnes) and 16% of worldwide vitality manufacturing can be sourced from offshore oil and fuel, highlighting the significance of each vitality transition and vitality safety to the maritime sector.

Fuel transport is rising strongly, with LNG provider markets on the cusp of a serious growth section (LNG commerce may develop to ~655mt by 2030, up 60% from right this moment). As well as, LPG provider markets proceed to develop (2024 noticed file newbuild funding of 159 ships of 10.4m cbm), whereas we count on sturdy development in ethane (potential for ~50 mt to be traded through sea by 2035), ammonia (~45mt) and CO2 (~30mt) transport and we’re additionally monitoring >85 hydrogen manufacturing initiatives linked to transport necessities.
Offshore wind represents 0.4% of worldwide vitality provide right this moment and we undertaking this to achieve 2% by 2035 and 6% by 2050.

Norway stays a number one maritime cluster (Norwegian transport firms management ~3% of the world fleet tonnage), whereas Oslo can also be a significant hub for ship finance, shipbroking, class providers and insurance coverage.

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