NATO Naval Energy Week
By Steinar Torset and Ian Bowers
Regardless of important and ongoing losses suffered because of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia stays a big menace to NATO members. As NATO restructures to deal with this new actuality, NATO’s naval forces should additionally restructure to each exploit NATO’s enlargement and higher tackle simultaneous threats in NATO’s waters.
The accession of Finland and Sweden into NATO, two states with extremely succesful navies, has essentially modified the alliance’s navy maritime geography. The Baltic Sea is now an operational space dominated by NATO members. Nonetheless, it’s not but a NATO lake with Russia, working out of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad, able to creating a variety of below-the-threshold and wartime operational results. On the identical time, Russia’s Northern Fleet has largely averted the drive degradation skilled by Russian land forces and continues to pose a problem within the Excessive North and the North Atlantic.
NATO ought to create a 3rd Standing NATO Maritime Group (SNMG) devoted to operations within the Baltic. This may totally exploit the operational advantages of Finland and Sweden becoming a member of NATO and benefit from ongoing drive developments in different Baltic NATO navies, together with Poland and Germany.
Not solely would the brand new SNMG-3 be drawn largely from Baltic states, however it will additionally leverage their considerably bespoke capabilities and regional information. It will even be designed to work carefully with regional NATO land and air parts, a necessity given the littoral nature of the working theatre. Moreover, it will enable SNMG-1 to pay attention totally on its main space of operations within the North Atlantic with out being pulled out of space to handle contingencies and show presence within the Baltic. NATO can have entry to ample forces to keep up an additional SNMG and may subsequently benefit from this chance.
The Russian Risk within the North Atlantic and the Baltic
At sea, Russia poses a variety of threats throughout the competitors continuum to NATO and its members. In accordance with a number of intelligence businesses, Russia’s Northern Fleet, based mostly on the Kola Peninsula, stays totally operational. Whereas doubts persist over the high quality of the fleet’s floor belongings, notably for high-intensity fight and sustained operations, there’s consensus that Russia’s undersea platforms pose a big menace to the alliance. Not solely have they got potent warfighting capabilities, however they allow and conduct hybrid operations comparable to disrupting undersea infrastructure.
On the identical time within the Baltic, Russia’s Baltic Fleet and civil maritime presence poses if not an equal however nonetheless potent menace to NATO pursuits. Though Russia is remoted, with each different littoral state a member of NATO, this doesn’t imply the Baltic is a so-called NATO lake. The Baltic fleet and Russian civil and shadow maritime presence have a variety of hybrid and conventional warfighting capabilities. The quite a few instances of disruption to undersea cables are probably examples of this functionality.
The Russian enclave of Kaliningrad presents a important if not insurmountable problem to NATO forces. Specifically, Russian plane, anti-ship, and anti-air missiles deployed at Kaliningrad current an ever-present threat to NATO maritime and air forces. NATO’s answer to this downside is probably going a joint strategy the place a mix of the maritime, land, and air parts enable NATO to determine and preserve a bonus.
NATO’s Present Maritime Posture
NATO’s main warfighting drive at sea within the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea is SNMG-1. SNMG-1’s overarching wartime mission is to safe transatlantic SLOCs and conduct operations on NATO’s northern flank to determine restricted sea management or conduct sea denial actions in areas important to NATO’s reinforcement. In competitors and disaster part operations, SNMG-1 is tasked with taking part in workout routines, contingency response, and monitoring Russian actions within the Excessive North, together with Russian submarines deployments from the Kola Peninsula. The presence of a strong maritime group within the North Sea, Norwegian Sea, and whilst far north because the Barents Sea is assessed to be one of many deterrence mechanisms NATO makes use of in peacetime.
Vitally, NATO depends on SNMG-1 not solely to function within the North Atlantic but in addition within the Baltic. This divides the group’s operational focus and leaves occasional gaps in NATO’s maritime presence in each important strategic areas. For instance, SNMG-1 repeatedly participates within the massive, annual U.S.-led BALTOPS train. SNMG-1 additionally lent its operational help to the NATO Operation Baltic Sentry which is designed to extend NATO’s maritime presence and area consciousness to guard vital undersea infrastructure within the Baltic.
This example was acceptable when NATO members restructured their forces within the post-Chilly Conflict world and the perceived menace from Russia was diminished. Certainly, in that interval the SNMG’s operational priorities moved away from high-end deterrence and towards a set of constabulary-type operations together with peace enforcement, counterpiracy and counter-narcotics operations. Furthermore, resulting from strategic inertia inside NATO and shrinking fleet sizes, all NATO SNMGs struggled to keep up required drive ranges with usually solely two or three vessels assigned to every group, which might be briefly strengthened throughout workout routines.
Though nationwide contributions to the 4 NATO standing maritime teams have elevated since 2022, the present strategic and operational state of affairs requires a brand new answer, one which would offer NATO with standing maritime forces in all key operational areas.
Baltic Naval Forces and SNMG-3
Through the Chilly Conflict, the Baltic Sea fell below Commander-in-Chief Allied Forces Northern Europe, then based mostly at Kolsås in Norway. The maritime part of the command, NAVBALTAP, had the first mission of denying the Soviet Baltic Fleet entry to the North Sea via the Baltic approaches whereas additionally disrupting Warsaw Pact operations within the Baltic itself. By sealing off the Baltic Sea, this ensured that ports important to NATO resupply had been safe and that the Soviet Baltic Fleet couldn’t help the Northern Fleet for operations within the Norwegian Sea.
The state of affairs has now modified. Whereas beforehand the one Baltic NATO states had been Denmark and West Germany, now Russia is surrounded by NATO members. This modifications NATO’s operational priorities for the Baltic, the place NATO not has to disclaim the Soviet Union the free use of the Baltic. As an alternative, it should now attain sea management to make sure that the important SLOCs and undersea infrastructure that maintain many Baltic states are protected, as is the territorial sovereignty of all member states. As well as, NATO can totally exploit its naval superiority within the Baltic Sea and ship quite a lot of offensive results throughout and thru the Baltic theatre ought to conflict escape.
Earlier than Finland and Sweden joined NATO, it could possibly be argued that Baltic Sea NATO members didn’t have ample capabilities to keep up an SNMG devoted to their waters. The state of affairs has now modified. Not solely do Sweden and Finland convey new capabilities to NATO’s drive construction, additionally they be part of different NATO Baltic states – Poland, Germany, and Denmark – which are at the moment investing in new naval platforms. Mixed, these new ships will present NATO with ample floor capabilities round which to kind a brand new SNMG, which as with different SNMGs, would have one commander and flagship that may rotate from nation to nation.
Finland is at the moment within the means of strengthening their navy with 4 new Pohjanmaa-class corvettes. The primary of those 4,300-ton vessels is scheduled to be commissioned in 2027. Armed with anti-ship, anti-submarine, and anti-air capabilities, these vessels signify a big enhancement in Finnish naval capabilities. Alongside the 4 Hamina-class quick assault craft, these new corvettes will present NATO with a potent set of naval platforms for operations within the Baltic.
Sweden’s navy can also be present process substantial change. In 2020 the Swedish authorities determined so as to add a further 4 floor combatants to the Swedish fleet. Initially, this was going to be a second technology of the already current and extremely succesful Visby-class corvette. The ambition for this second technology was to make it extra fitted to NATO operations, geared up with fashionable anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles, and anti-submarine torpedoes. Nonetheless, in 2023 Sweden cancelled these plans and determined to obtain 4 new Luleå-class corvettes as an alternative. With a size of over 120 meters, preliminary reviews counsel the brand new corvettes can have an anti-air warfare focus. The primary of those new vessels shall be commissioned by 2030. Alongside the Visby-class ships, they are going to present Sweden with a complete of 9 highly effective vessels suited to littoral Baltic operations.
Poland is constructing the primary of three new 7,000-ton Miecznik-class frigates. The category is predicated on the British Arrowhead 140 design that can also be getting used as the idea for the brand new Sort 31 frigate of the Royal Navy. The primary ship, ORP Wicher, is because of be launched in 2026. Poland additionally has an possibility for a further 5 ships. This new floor fleet marks a sea change in functionality for the Polish Navy and can contribute important maritime capacities within the Baltic Sea.
Whereas the German Navy is likely one of the extra highly effective in NATO, the ships assigned to the Baltic are based mostly in Kiel as a part of Einsatzflotille 1. These embrace 5 K130 ocean-going corvettes with one other 5 deliberate to be commissioned within the subsequent few years. Germany repeatedly contributes with ships to SNMG-1 and for a few years has supplied the group with an at-sea replenishment ship. With funding in place to buy 4 new F-127 class frigates, Germany will be capable to preserve its commitments to SNMG-1 whereas additionally working in a brand new SNMG-3.
Denmark is likely one of the largest delivery nations on this planet and has since 2007 contributed repeatedly to maritime operations in NATO and coalition frameworks. It has additionally repeatedly dedicated vessels to SNMG-1. Though located on the mouth of the Baltic, Denmark can also be an Arctic nation with duties associated to sustaining good order at sea and defending the waters round Greenland. This offers the Danish Navy a broad array of roles, notably given the arguably worsening strategic state of affairs within the Arctic. Partly to mitigate this dilemma, in March 2025 Denmark awarded contracts to construct three new Arctic patrol vessels, changing the previous and under-gunned Thetis-class. Denmark additionally operates two 2 Absalon-class and three Iver Huitfeldt-class frigates which, along with a future new class of frigate, will enable them to stay a dependable contributor to SNMG-1 whereas additionally offering vessels to a brand new Baltic SNMG.
It needs to be famous that the three remaining Baltic NATO members, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all possess patrol and mine warfare vessels. This may restrict their function in SNMG-3 however the navies of those nations already contribute to one among NATO’s standing mine countermeasure teams.
The Advantages of SNMG-3
The first profit of making an SNMG-3 can be, as described above, the everlasting presence of NATO naval teams in two areas of strategic significance. There can be no need for SNMG-1 to spend a number of months at a time outdoors its main space of concern. The maritime teams from each areas is also anticipated to repeatedly meet and conduct workout routines as a part of constructing interoperability and exhibits of drive.
The creation of SNMG-3 would additionally enable for the event of a extra bespoke command relationship that matches NATO’s new regional plans and the mixing of recent headquarters. At the moment, all NATO SNMGs fall below the peacetime management of NATO MARCOM based mostly in Northwood in the UK. A everlasting NATO naval group within the Baltic would possess the additional benefit of having the ability to set up and preserve C2 relationships with a variety of NATO instructions. SNMG-3 would enable for the event of a everlasting C2 relationship between the group at sea and the newly shaped Commander Process Pressure Baltic (CTF Baltic). One in all NATO’s structural issues with the Baltic Sea is the arguably competing roles of JFC Norfolk (a predominantly maritime command) and JFC Brunssum. SNMG-3 would most definitely have to determine a command relationship with each JFCs.
Along with representing a everlasting and out there drive for the 2 JFCs, a standing maritime group within the Baltic Sea would additionally enable commanders within the current NATO MNCNE, based mostly in Poland and the long run NATO MCLCC, in Finland to develop joint warfighting plans for the Baltic Sea Area based mostly on the belief of instantly out there ships.
A SNMG-3 would offer a rotating tactical-level command at sea held by one of many Baltic States. Not solely would this present NATO Baltic members with mixed command expertise, one thing that the Danes and Germans have essentially the most expertise with, however it will additionally develop a cadre of officers and crews throughout the Baltic with expertise in working collectively in operational teams. This may construct upon the current expertise of each Sweden and Finland which in January 2025 formally joined SNMG-1 after they participated in surveillance operations below the framework of NATO’s Baltic Sentry maritime surveillance exercise within the Baltic Sea.
A Baltic SNMG would additionally facilitate operations with different allies and drive constructions, comparable to periodic US. Navy involvement with SNMG-1 and SNMG-2. In the case of SNMG-1, the U.S. has solely contributed a ship below the command of NATO after they have command of the group. The final time this occurred was in 2019. This doesn’t imply nevertheless that the U.S. Navy doesn’t function alongside NATO SNMG as U.S. vessels repeatedly take part in workout routines that embrace SNMG.
The U.S. Navy has historically deployed ships to the area. Through the Chilly Conflict and even afterward, this was designed to show to Jap European navies that they might not dominate the Baltic Sea. One instance of that is the BALTOPS train. BALTOPS just isn’t a NATO-led train, however an annual U.S.-led train organized by NAVEUR since 1971. With reference to U.S. participation in a brand new SNMG-3, we assess that it’s not probably that ships from the U.S. Navy will take part below NATO command in a everlasting new SNMG-3. However with common deployments of U.S. ships into the Baltic Sea it may be anticipated that warships from the U.S. Navy will take part in actions and workout routines alongside SNMG-3.
Conclusion
NATO’s return to its core mission of deterrence and the protection of the Euro-Atlantic space has been made solely extra obligatory by Russia’s continued aggressive actions each above and beneath the edge of conflict. Ongoing restructuring of the operational parts of the alliance is specializing in regional clusters of mutually supporting states. It’s time for the maritime part to evolve in the identical approach the air and land parts are. An SNMG-3 centered on the Baltic wouldn’t solely enable SNMG-1 to focus on its core operational space within the North Atlantic, however it will additionally ship a robust sign of NATO’s intent to undermine and deter Russian malign actions within the area.
Steinar Torset is a Captain within the Royal Norwegian Navy and is the Head of Part for Army Technique on the Norwegian Defence Command and Workers Faculty.
Ian Bowers is a senior researcher on the Norwegian Institute for Defence Research, Norwegian Defence College Faculty.
Featured Picture: The Royal Swedish Navy corvette HMS Nyköping (K34) underway in Trondheim Fjord, Norway, on October 30, 2018, as a part of NATO train Trident Juncture 2018. (U.S. Navy photograph)
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