We’re quick approaching a possible inflection level for the U.S. offshore wind trade, the November 2024 elections.
On the optimistic aspect of the dimensions, federal and state leases supporting roughly 63 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capability have been awarded to builders on the East Coast, Pacific Coast and Gulf of Mexico. Additional, this yr the federal government plans to public sale floating wind websites in Oregon and the Gulf of Maine that may doubtlessly assist greater than 18 GW of capability earlier than the elections. Federal companies have additionally permitted over 10.5 GW of venture capability this yr, taking the full to 12.2 GW, of which 9.4 GW has secured state offtake commitments. In all, over 15 GW of venture capability has secured offtake agreements.
Federal companies are at present planning to allow at the very least one other 10 GW of venture capability by mid-2028 and have launched a 2025-2028 leasing timetable that features auctions within the Gulf of Mexico, the Central Atlantic, the New York Bight, California, Hawaii and a U.S. territory, which can be Guam.
Nonetheless, and even with out the uncertainty of the elections, Intelatus World Companions’ forecast has “shifted to the correct”, which means much less capability is anticipated to be commissioned by 2035 than beforehand forecast. Our 2035 forecast now counts roughly 51 GW of bottom-fixed capability and roughly 9 GW of floating capability and sees annual capability additions of roughly 4.5-10.5 GW put up 2030.
To some extent, states are addressing developer considerations round inflation and rates of interest, however there stay vital provide chain challenges to assembly the forecast.
By the tip of the yr, a transparent route of journey for the U.S. offshore wind section ought to emerge.
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