The worldwide offshore wind business is poised for a rebound in 2025, with capability additions anticipated to succeed in 19GW and sector-wide expenditure projected to hit $80 billion, based on analysis from Rystad Power.
This restoration follows a slowdown on the finish of final yr, when new installations dropped to roughly 8GW, which is 2GW decrease than the yr prior.
A report wave of lease auctions is driving the resurgence, with the world’s largest offshore wind market, mainland China, accounting for 65% of recent capability. With this enhance, whole additions will exceed the earlier peak in 2021 by about 1GW, surpassing the 7.7GW added in 2024, 10.2GW in 2023 and 9.3GW in 2022.
A report 55GW of offshore wind capability was supplied in lease auctions globally (excluding mainland China) in 2024. Nevertheless, not all this capability has but been awarded, as supplied capability doesn’t all the time translate into awarded capability. As an example, the US noticed no bids for its 3GW floating wind public sale in Oregon final yr, whereas the Gulf of Maine public sale awarded roughly 7GW of the roughly 13GW supplied.
Regardless of 2024’s report choices, lease public sale openings are projected to say no in 2025, with an anticipated 30-40GW out there. Whereas considerably decrease than 2024, this projected supplied capability remains to be vital, aligned with ranges seen in 2021 and 2022.
“World offshore wind is about for a sturdy yr in 2025. Nevertheless, sure alerts might have an effect on its easy upward trajectory. US federal coverage is creating vital international ripple results, hindering offshore wind improvement, particularly the place a big portion of auctioned capability lies. President Donald Trump’s January memorandum halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), citing environmental and security issues, might final all through his time period, pausing new developments and creating continued uncertainty for ongoing tasks,” stated Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst, Rystad Power.
Challenge delays considerably impacted closing funding selections (FID) for brand spanking new offshore wind tasks in 2024, resulting in a decline in mission approvals. Notably, 2024 noticed just a few US tasks attain FID, together with Empire Wind 1, Dawn Wind and Costal Virginia Offshore Wind.
“We anticipate to see across the identical degree of FIDs this yr as final in Europe and Asia, and a few doable upside within the US with US Wind, Southcoast Wind and New England Wind tasks acquiring offtake agreements and building and operation approvals. The latter two simply postponed signing offtake contracts till March this yr.”
Regardless of the sluggish tempo of sanctioning in 2024, the yr builders superior tasks like Pink Rock Energy and ESB’s 1.1-GW Inch Cape within the UK and Equinor’s 810-MW Empire Wind 1 within the US. Inch Cape, which formally introduced its monetary shut standing in January 2025, secured 15-year contracts for distinction (CFD) in each 2022 and 2024, offering income certainty and boosting investor confidence. Different wind farms reaching FID in 2024 embrace Iberdrola’s 315-MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795-MW OranjeWind within the Netherlands, and Orsted’s 924-MW Dawn Wind 1 within the US.
The UK, Poland and Germany are set to steer a surge in European FIDs in 2025, reaching 9.5GW, with a number of tasks in these nations on monitor for closing approval. Poland specifically is predicted to see a number of main wind farms attain FID, together with Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III, following the latest FID for Orsted and PGE’s Baltica 2 in late January 2025.
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