Extremely profitable skilled navigator Simon ‘Si Fi’ Fisher provides Andy Rice his 5 prime ideas for race-winning climate routing.
Whether or not you’re making ready for a race and even only a leg of an extended race, there’s at all times a course of for planning your routing, says Si Fi. “I’ll begin wanting on the forecast and the completely different climate fashions about 5 to 6 days out from the beginning. It’s very important to do some wide-ranging analysis, having a look on the total climate sample and the place the fashions agree or disagree, but it surely’s additionally essential to not get to the purpose of paralysis by evaluation.”
He makes use of a spread of know-how to plan the routing, however advises a KISS (Hold It Easy, Silly) method. “Most of what I do is predicated round Expedition and Adrena. I feel one or the opposite will serve most individuals’s wants very properly. Finally it’s higher to know the instruments you’re utilizing properly versus attempting to make use of each software program software obtainable.”
The ever-accelerating advance of AI will probably revolutionise climate routing in some unspecified time in the future however he warns of turning into too reliant on the most recent know-how pretty much as good seamanship and crusing ability will nonetheless typically trump the know-how.
Fisher nonetheless has the talents to navigate with sextant and stars, though he admits: “I haven’t tried it on the brand new technology of high-speed foilers just like the IMOCA. I believe attempting to get a gentle studying when you’re bouncing alongside at 25 knots may very well be fairly difficult!” he laughs.
The most recent technology IMOCA 60s are in all probability a bit too fast for celestial navigation
Select climate fashions
There’s an enormous vary of climate fashions, however the two foremost ones for the worldwide stuff are the EC (European) mannequin, and the GFS (American) mannequin. Then there are the UK and French fashions to contemplate too. These are the most effective fashions for taking a look at routing whenever you’re properly offshore, however whenever you get nearer to shore, and nearer to race begin day, there’s an entire vary of upper decision native fashions price taking a look at.
Most individuals are likely to lean on the EC and the GFS fashions as a result of they’re essentially the most obtainable and related over a interval of longer than 24 hours. GFS is totally free and runs 4 instances a day. The EC additionally runs 4 instances a day however is usually obtainable to obtain solely twice a day.
I’d usually use these two fashions initially to grasp how the climate is working and the principle options in play. Then within the final 24 hours earlier than a begin I’ll look to the upper decision fashions for extra element and effective tuning of the technique.
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[coolletion]Do the fashions agree?
If you’re making ready for a race, look carefully at what the completely different fashions are saying. How a lot do they agree or disagree? If you happen to’re 5 days out and every mannequin has a number of completely different solutions, you may be fairly assured the forecast goes to alter considerably within the coming days. However that uncertainty may be helpful in figuring out what to give attention to.
Within the days previous a race I run completely different fashions via routing software program to see how the reply modifications each from run to run and likewise each day. Is one mannequin trending in the direction of one other, or are they converging on the identical reply? You may be most assured the place all of the fashions agree, but when they aren’t in settlement you may typically draw somewhat extra confidence from the mannequin which is transferring the least from each day. Consistency can typically point out extra accuracy for that specific state of affairs.
Ensemble modelling
Ensemble modelling is one other helpful weapon to have in your armoury, significantly for ocean races. GFS and EC have ensemble forecasts the place they begin with an preliminary ‘management’ mannequin, after which tweak the preliminary situations very barely. What you find yourself with is 30 completely different mannequin forecasts within the case of the GFS, or 50 within the case of the EC.
It’s a useful gizmo to see when and the place the forecast diverges over time. Operating a number of routes, and seeing how tightly packed or unfold out the routes are, supplies beneficial perception into what number of strategic choices are doable and the way constant the deterministic forecasts are more likely to be.
Usually you’ll see one or two teams of tightly packed routes, which supplies an thought of the place the most definitely choices are going to be. The place the ensemble forecasts or related routes descend into chaos after a sure variety of days will on the very least let you know issues are going to alter and that you just’ll must hold your choices open and never be too radical.
eleventh Hour Racing workforce huddles across the navstation for a have a look at the most recent climate image in The Ocean Race. Photograph: Amory Ross/eleventh Hour Racing/The Ocean Race
Discuss it via
Apart from taking a look at eventualities in a couple of approach, at a human stage it’s at all times good to debate routing with a wider group of individuals. On The Ocean Race programme, we are likely to work with an even bigger workforce on the shore aspect, with help from skilled meteorologists and different navigators.
However there’s at all times a certain quantity of chat between the fellows within the race – whether or not it’s your teammates or rivals – since you’re all in an identical place. After all at some stage everybody needs to maintain their playing cards near their chest, but it surely’s good to share concepts and get a really feel for what different individuals is perhaps taking a look at or worrying about.
Handle your threat
Good routing comes down largely to good threat administration. An enormous a part of that’s how a lot threat you place on the climate forecast or a routing choice, versus what the remainder of the fleet is doing. It’s a technique versus techniques trade-off.
Some choices and routing choices may offer you a giant win in the event that they work out, but when they don’t then you definitely lose every part. There’s typically a safer choice, or one the place you may cowl the fleet higher. Fairly often it’s prudent in races to surrender a number of miles in case you’re forward, to verify the fleet can’t get previous you.
I can’t stress sufficient how essential it’s to at all times hold your head out of the boat whenever you’re on the race course. You at all times have to be ready to switch your technique based mostly on what’s occurring round you, whether or not it’s the climate, your boat’s efficiency or your rivals. The race profitable technique must consider all these issues.
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