Dry bulk market update: How Cape & Panamax freight markets are repricing under the new coal trade map
Cape Atlantic & Pacific and Panamax Pacific all printing higher rates. Supply is being absorbed.
Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed thermal coal demand toward seaborne Asia. Panamax Pacific the immediate beneficiary.
Russia → Asia coal corridor
April 2026 record high. Russian coal (97.8% of origins) flowing to N.China, S.China & India. Indo→N.China Panamax tonne-miles −40% MoM; AUS→S.China Capes +212%.
Older Panamax tonnage outperforming. 15Y & 20Y up +33% YoY while newbuild prices are down −5%.
Freight · Capesize Atlantic
C3 Capes to ECSA — ballast surplus falling, rates spiking
175 vessels · latest gross supply (90.3% ballast)
WoW · Ballast −3 / Laden +6
MoM · Ballast +2 / Laden 0
YoY · 0 ballast / Laden +3
P5 Panamax to Indo — Hormuz reshuffle pricing in
313 vessels · latest gross supply (52.2% ballast)
WoW · Ballast +28 / Laden +7
MoM · Ballast +33 / Laden −7
YoY · Ballast +2 / Laden −5
Russian coal — April record on Pacific exports
Panamax share of flow
Top destinations: 17.1% N. China · 16.2% S. China · 11.0% E.C. India · 9.4% Korea · 6.7% E. Med · 5.4% Pak/WC India
April 2026 Russian coal exports hit 7.8M t, a new record (+18.8% YoY). 62.7% out of Russian Pacific, 38.4% on Panamax.
Trade Flows · Coal Re-mapping
Indo→N.China fading · AUS→S.China surging
Indo→N.China Panamax · tonne-miles MoM
Indo→N.China Panamax · tonne-days MoM
AUS East→S.China Cape · tonne-miles MoM
AUS East→C.China Cape · tonne-days MoM
Panamax · Indo → N.China
Rainfall fell, exports fell more
June 2025 marked the cycle low for Indonesian coal exports to China at 11.13 Mt. Sangatta rainfall had eased to 92 mm from the March peak of 168 mm, yet exports kept declining. If weather were binding, the low would have aligned with peak rain in March or April.
The H2 2025 recovery confirms the divergence: November–December volumes exceeded 2024 levels despite rainfall rising again to 166 mm in November. April 2026 flows at 11.6 Mt sit just above the previous cycle low.
Weather is not the binding factor. Indonesia–China coal weakness is driven by Jakarta’s Q1 2025 policy tightening and China’s domestic coal substitution.
Asset Values · Panamax
Older tonnage outperforming
Age band Price (USD M) YoY
Momentum shift: 15Y & 20Y up +33% YoY — steepest among age categories — while newbuild values slip −5%. Buyers are paying up for earnings now rather than for delivery in 2027+. Freight strength is now reflected in secondhand and aged-vessel valuations.
Cape basins are firm on both sides — C3 ~$37/mt, C5 ~$15/mt.
Panamax Pacific lift is policy-driven — Hormuz disruption is the spark for the P5 move. Sustainability depends on whether coal redirection persists past the immediate crisis window.
Trade map is rotating, not growing — Indo→N.China Panamax coal is bleeding tonne-days; AUS East→S.China net ton-mile effect is Cape-bullish.
Vintage Panamax tonnage is the value trade — 15Y/20Y +33% YoY while newbuild prices soften — an unusual inversion of the age curve.
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