Geopolitical turmoil is making copper a national security issue, US veteran says
A confluence of geopolitical pressures, supply chain constraints, and accelerating demand from electrification and defense is reshaping how governments and investors think about .
According to a January 2026 study by S&P Global, global copper demand is projected to reach 42 million metric tons by 2040 — roughly 50% above current levels — while existing supply is poised to decline in the coming years as the mining sector faces compounding challenges across the value chain.
The White House designated copper a critical material essential to national security in February 2025, citing dependence on foreign sources and the risk of foreign market manipulation.
The supply base is also heavily concentrated. Six countries account for approximately two-thirds of global mining production, while China controls around 40% of smelting capacity, the study showed.
Earlier this month, China announced its decision to ban sulfuric acid exports effective May 2026, which puts an estimated 200,000 tons of Chilean copper production at risk, translating to 1% of global supply, according to Goldman Sachs.
Now, the ongoing instability in the Middle East is compounding already tight conditions across industrial metal supply chains, stoking uncertainty around the energy inputs and mineral flows that grid expansion and electrification depend on.
Commander Phil Ehr, a former U.S. military commander and now an Advisory Board Member at NovaRed Mining, spoke with Investing.com about what these developments mean for supply chain resilience, government policy, and the long-term demand outlook for the metal.
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