MABUX: Bunker Prices Could Keep Deflating Next Week
Since the announcement of the ceasefire in the Middle East on April 8, the global bunker market has entered a phase of temporary stabilization, accompanied by a moderate downward correction. By the end of the week, the 380 HSFO index declined by USD 14.86, falling from USD 771.58/MT to USD 756.72/MT. The VLSFO index dropped by a further USD 25.10, from USD 901.43/MT to USD 876.33/MT, breaking below the USD 900.00 threshold. The MGO LS index recorded the most significant decrease, down by USD 68.97 from USD 1,525.64/MT to USD 1,456.67/MT, also breaching the USD 1,500.00 level. MGO LS continues to represent the most volatile segment of the global bunker market. At the time of writing, no clear directional trend has yet emerged in the dynamics of global indices.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—entered a contraction phase, declining by USD 10.24 from USD 129.85 to USD 119.61, thus falling below the USD 120.00 mark. Despite this decrease, the spread remains comfortably above the psychological threshold of USD 100.00 (SS breakeven). The weekly average of the index also edged down by USD 10.22. At the port level, Rotterdam recorded a decline in the SS Spread of USD 15.00, from USD 42.00 to USD 27.00, briefly touching the USD 25.00 level. The weekly average in Rotterdam decreased by USD 2.67. In Singapore, the spread narrowed more sharply, dropping by USD 42.00 from USD 112.00 to USD 70.00, thereby breaking below the USD 100.00 mark. The weekly average in Singapore also fell significantly, down by USD 42.17. We expect the SS Spread to maintain its downward trajectory in the coming week. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section of
The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) closed the week unchanged at USD 100.00. However, against a backdrop of heightened market volatility, the index exhibited significant mixed fluctuations within a broad range of USD 50.00–125.00. The weekly average declined by USD 27.50.
The calculation of the Venice ECA Spread has been temporarily suspended due to the absence of regular market quotations. Amid the ongoing de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, we expect the ECA Spread to remain near current levels in the short term, while continuing to display mixed fluctuations. Detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of
Europe’s gas prices have softened in recent weeks; however, the market appears to be underpricing emerging supply-side risks. Structural pressures are expected to intensify in the coming months, driven by below-average storage levels and ongoing disruptions to LNG flows—particularly from Qatar amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This leaves Europe increasingly exposed as it competes with Asia for constrained global supply. Even in the event of a ceasefire, normalization of LNG flows is likely to be gradual, suggesting that market tightness and elevated price levels will persist through the summer period and potentially extend beyond.
As of April 14, the level of natural gas in European underground storage facilities showed a slight increase, reaching 29.55% of total capacity, up by 0.94 percentage points compared to the previous week. However, current storage levels remain significantly lower—by 31.91%—than those recorded on January 1, 2026 (61.46%). At the end of Week 16, the European gas benchmark TTF recorded a notable decline, falling by EUR 9.882/MWh from EUR 53.247/MWh to EUR 43.365/MWh, thereby dropping below the EUR 50.00/MWh threshold.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) continued its downward trend, declining by a further USD 102.00 week-on-week to USD 1,047/MT (from USD 1,149/MT previously). As a result, the price differential between LNG and conventional marine fuel narrowed to USD 440 in favor of LNG, compared to USD 476 the week before. On April 13, MGO LS at the port of Sines was quoted at USD 1,630/MT. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section of
Amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which reflects the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—demonstrated the following trends across the world’s largest hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: All ports remained undervalued. Discount levels increased by 13 points in Rotterdam, 19 points in Singapore, and 24 points in Fujairah, while Houston recorded a decrease of 14 points.
• VLSFO segment: All ports were also undervalued, with MDI discounts widening by 12 points in Rotterdam, 46 points in Singapore, 44 points in Fujairah, and 6 points in Houston.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam remained the only undervalued port, with the average discount increasing by 25 points. The other three ports continued to be overvalued; however, overvaluation levels declined significantly—by 239 points in Singapore, 92 points in Fujairah, and 34 points in Houston.
Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports remained unchanged during the week. We expect that amid the ceasefire and relative market stabilization, no major shifts in MDI dynamics are likely in the near term. More detailed insights into the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark are available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on
Global maritime piracy and armed robbery activity declined sharply in Q1 2026, reaching the lowest level for a first quarter since 1991, according to the ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB). A total of 16 incidents were recorded worldwide, comprising 14 vessel boardings, one hijacking and one attempted attack. This represents a significant reduction compared to 45 incidents in Q1 2025 and 33 in Q1 2024. The Singapore Straits remained the primary hotspot, accounting for eight incidents during the period. However, this figure marks a substantial year-on-year improvement from 31 incidents in Q1 2025. Reported cases in the area were largely described as low-level and opportunistic, although weapons were involved in six incidents, indicating that risks to crew safety persist despite the overall decline. In the Philippines, four incidents were reported in Q1 2026—two at Manila anchorage and two at Bauan anchorage in Batangas Bay—compared to zero incidents during the same period last year, highlighting a localized uptick. According to the IMB, the overall reduction reflects the positive impact of timely reporting and sustained international cooperation. Nevertheless, the Bureau emphasized that continued vigilance remains essential to ensure the safety of seafarers and the security of global shipping routes.
The current two-week ceasefire agreement in the Middle East conflict zone has contributed to a relative stabilization of the bunker market, with a downward correction emerging as the dominant trend. We expect this trend to persist into next week; however, the market is likely to remain highly volatile and sensitive to geopolitical developments.
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