MABUX: Bunker Prices Expected to Retain Fluctuations Next Week
The global bunker market recorded mixed performance over the week, with price fluctuations remaining significant amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The 380 HSFO index surged by USD 38.13, rising from USD 765.04/MT the previous week to USD 803.17/MT and exceeding the USD 800 threshold. The VLSFO index also posted a strong gain of USD 48.53, increasing from USD 914.02/MT to USD 962.55/MT, steadily approaching the USD 1,000 mark. In contrast, the MGO LS index declined by USD 6.91, falling from USD 1,462.01/MT last week to USD 1,455.10/MT. At the time of writing, the global bunker market continued to display a mixed trend, reflecting persistent volatility across fuel segments.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — continued its upward trajectory, rising by USD 10.40 from USD 148.98 last week to USD 159.38. The index remained firmly above the psychological USD 100.00 breakeven threshold and additionally surpassed the USD 150.00 mark. The weekly average of the global SS Spread also increased by USD 20.49. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread posted a substantial gain of USD 48.00, climbing from USD 92.00 last week to USD 140.00 and once again moving above the USD 100.00 breakeven level. The port’s weekly average SS Spread rose by USD 31.50. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread increased by USD 12.00, from USD 103.00 last week to USD 115.00, while the weekly average value in the port advanced by USD 19.33. Overall, SS Spread values continue to remain consistently above the USD 100.00 breakeven mark, significantly improving the economic attractiveness of scrubber-equipped vessels consuming 380 HSFO compared to ships operating on conventional VLSFO. Given the current high level of market volatility, the upward trend in SS Spread dynamics is likely to persist into next week. Detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section on
The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) closed the week at USD 20.00, down sharply from USD 50.00 recorded the previous week, while the weekly average declined by USD 44.17. The Venice ECA Spread remains uncalculated due to the absence of regular market quotations.
Overall, the ECA Spread continued its significant downward correction and remains well below the USD 100.00 level, substantially reducing the economic attractiveness and profitability of conventional ULSFO compared to traditional MGO LS fuel. At this stage, no major changes in the ECA Spread trend are expected next week. Detailed information is available in the “Differentials” section of
According to Lansdowne Moritz, global LNG bunker volumes declined below 1 million tonnes in Q1, after exceeding this threshold in the previous quarter. The downturn was primarily driven by prolonged cold weather in January, which tightened global gas balances, constrained US LNG exports, and pushed prices higher. Additional pressure came from geopolitical factors, notably the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid Middle East tensions, which disrupted LNG market stability. As a result, LNG lost price competitiveness relative to VLSFO across key bunkering hubs. Elevated LNG prices also incentivized dual-fuel vessels to switch to conventional fuels, further weighing on LNG bunker demand. From a regional perspective, Europe’s position weakened as TTF prices traded above JKM from mid-January, reflecting growing inventory concerns. In contrast, Asian hubs benefited from relatively stronger pricing dynamics and initial bunker demand from newbuild vessels. Despite the broader global slowdown, LNG bunkering volumes in the US and Canada showed strong growth, more than doubling compared to the previous quarter.
European underground gas storage facilities continued to record moderate gains as of May 5, with total storage occupancy reaching 34.07% of capacity, up 2.10 percentage points from the previous week. However, current occupancy levels remain 27.39% below the year-opening level of 61.46%. Meanwhile, the European TTF gas benchmark maintained its moderate upward momentum for the Week 19, rising to EUR 46.926/MWh compared to EUR 43.594/MWh recorded last week. The continued increase in gas prices reflects ongoing market sensitivity to supply security concerns and the pace of storage replenishment ahead of the next heating season.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased by another USD 15.00 this week (USD 1,105/MT versus USD 1,090/MT last week). Meanwhile, the price difference between LNG and conventional fuel remained virtually unchanged, at USD 294 in favor of LNG (versus USD 300 the week before): MGO LS was quoted at USD 1,399/MT at the port of Sines on May 4. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section of
Amid persistently high market volatility and the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — recorded the following trends over the week across the world’s major bunker hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: All four ports remained in the undervalued zone. The level of undervaluation was unchanged in Rotterdam at 98 points, while discounts widened by 8 points in Singapore and by 12 points in Houston. In contrast, Fujairah recorded a marginal decline in its discount level by 3 points. Singapore’s MDI remained above the USD 100.00 threshold.
• VLSFO segment: Houston shifted into the undervalued zone, resulting in all four major ports being undervalued. The weekly MDI discount widened by 16 points in Rotterdam and by 28 points in Houston, while narrowing by 3 points in Singapore and by 65 points in Fujairah. Rotterdam and Singapore maintained MDI levels above USD 100.00, whereas Fujairah fell below this threshold. Houston’s MDI moved close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
• MGO LS segment: Rotterdam, Singapore, and Houston remained undervalued, with MDI levels increasing by 155 points, 89 points, and 10 points, respectively. Fujairah continued to be the only overvalued port in this fuel segment, with its overvaluation level rising by 28 points. Rotterdam and Singapore once again recorded MDI values above USD 100.00.
Overall, the ongoing shift toward undervaluation in the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports continued during the week, reinforced by another port moving into the undervalued zone in the VLSFO segment. Current market conditions suggest that this trend is likely to persist into next week. More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark is available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on
In his closing remarks at MEPC 84 (1 May), IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez proposed advancing preparatory work ahead of MEPC 85 through two intersessional meetings and a dedicated one-day expert workshop on “chain of custody” models. The proposal was endorsed, with intersessional sessions scheduled for 1–4 September and 23–27 November, preceding MEPC 85 (30 November–3 December). These meetings will focus on the development of mid-term measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping. While discussions on mid-term GHG measures remain ongoing, MEPC 84 delivered a concrete regulatory outcome with the adoption of a new Emission Control Area (ECA) in the North-East Atlantic. The regulation is set to enter into force on 1 September 2027, with full implementation from September 2028. The new ECA will cover the exclusive economic zones and territorial waters—up to 200 nautical miles from baselines—of Greenland, Iceland, the Faroe Islands, Ireland, and the mainland coasts of the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Portugal, significantly expanding the geographic scope of emissions regulation in the region.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, combined with the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the absence of any meaningful signs of de-escalation, continue to leave the global bunker market highly sensitive to developments in the region. Under current conditions, we expect global bunker indices to maintain a mixed pattern next week, with the potential for a downward correction should the conflicting parties move toward an agreement to end hostilities. However, any further escalation in the Middle East conflict could once again trigger a sharp increase in bunker prices.
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