MABUX: Bunker Prices to Keep Rising Next Week
During the week, the global bunker market resumed a clear upward trajectory, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the absence of any visible de-escalation signals. Market sentiment remained firmly supported by supply-side concerns and elevated risk premiums. By the end of the week, the 380 HSFO index increased by USD 26.54, rising from USD 737.03/MT to USD 763.57/MT. The VLSFO index recorded a more pronounced gain of USD 54.12, climbing from USD 856.02/MT to USD 910.14/MT and decisively breaching the USD 900.00 threshold. The MGO LS index also strengthened, advancing by USD 45.24 from USD 1,406.74/MT to USD 1,451.98/MT. At the time of writing, the market exhibited early signs of relative stabilization, with bunker indices transitioning into a phase of moderate and mixed fluctuations, suggesting a temporary pause in the upward momentum.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – representing the price differential between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – posted a significant increase of USD 27.58, rising from USD 118.99 last week to USD 146.57. The index remains firmly above the key psychological threshold of USD 100.00 (SS breakeven), reinforcing the economic attractiveness of scrubber installations. The weekly average SS index also advanced by USD 11.43, confirming a strengthening trend on a broader basis. At the regional level, Rotterdam recorded a substantial gain, with the SS Spread rising by USD 28.00 from USD 62.00 to USD 90.00, approaching the breakeven level. The port’s weekly average spread increased by USD 18.84, indicating continued recovery in fuel price differentials. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO spread also expanded, gaining USD 5.00 from USD 87.00 to USD 92.00, gradually moving closer to the USD 100.00 threshold. The weekly average spread in the port rose by USD 23.33, reflecting improving market conditions in the region. Amid ongoing market volatility, the SS Spread has established a clear upward trend, which is expected to persist into the coming week. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section of
The Istanbul ECA Spread (ES) continued its downward movement over the week, declining by USD 25.00 from USD 75.00 to USD 50.00. Despite the overall decrease, the market remained highly volatile, with intermittent spikes reaching as high as USD 115.00. The weekly average ES also fell by USD 14.17, reflecting the prevailing downward pressure. The Venice ECA Spread remains unavailable due to the absence of consistent market quotations. Amid sustained volatility, the ECA Spread may shift toward moderate growth in the coming week. Further details are available in the “Differentials” section of
According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is significantly disrupting global gas supply dynamics while simultaneously triggering demand destruction. LNG imports—particularly across Asian markets—have declined sharply, pressured by elevated prices and constrained availability. What initially appears as a short-term shock increasingly carries structural implications: a prolonged conflict could reshape long-term demand patterns and undermine expectations of a forthcoming global gas surplus. On the supply side, alternative producers remain unable to fully offset the disruption. While U.S. LNG exports have expanded to partially bridge the gap, capacity from African and other suppliers continues to be underutilized. This imbalance is likely to sustain market tightness over the medium term, reinforcing upward pressure on prices and delaying any meaningful rebalancing of the global gas market.
European underground gas storage levels continued to show a modest increase as of April 28, reaching 31.97% of total capacity, up by 1.36 percentage points week-on-week. Despite this gradual recovery, storage levels remain significantly below the beginning-of-year mark, standing 29.49 percentage points lower compared to 61.46%, highlighting the slower pace of replenishment. At the same time, the European TTF gas benchmark resumed a moderate upward trend toward the end of week 18, rising by EUR 1.663/MWh to EUR 43.594/MWh, compared to EUR 41.931/MWh the previous week.
The price of LNG as bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) increased by USD 105.00 this week (USD 1,090/MT versus USD 985/MT last week). Meanwhile, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel continued to narrow, reaching USD 290 in favor of LNG (versus USD 342 the week before): MGO LS was quoted at USD 1,380/MT at the port of Sines on April 27. More detailed information is available in the “LNG Bunkering” section of
Amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—which measures the ratio between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—displayed a clear shift toward deeper undervaluation across the major global hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: all four ports remained in the undervalued zone, with discount levels widening further over the week. The MDI discount increased by 31 points in Rotterdam, 41 points in Singapore, 20 points in Fujairah, and 9 points in Houston. Notably, the MDI in both Rotterdam and Singapore moved closer to the USD 100.00 threshold, indicating a significant divergence from benchmark valuations.
• VLSFO segment: Houston was the only port to remain overvalued; however, its premium narrowed by 16 points. The other three ports—Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah—continued to be undervalued, with discounts expanding by 18, 28, and 10 points, respectively. The MDI discounts in all three ports exceeded the USD 100.00 mark.
• MGO LS segment: Singapore shifted into the undervalued category, joining Rotterdam and Houston. The level of undervaluation increased by 3 points in Rotterdam, 83 points in Fujairah, and 8 points in Houston. Fujairah remained the only overvalued port in this segment, although its premium dropped sharply by 90 points, falling below the USD 100.00 level.
Overall, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports continued to tilt toward undervaluation, with an additional port entering the undervalued zone in the MGO LS segment. This trend is likely to persist in the near term. Further details on the relationship between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark are available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on
The 84th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 84) is being held this week at IMO Headquarters in London. Ahead of the meeting, a broad maritime coalition—representing flag registries, classification societies, shipowner associations, and shipping companies—has issued a joint statement urging IMO Member States to give serious consideration to alternative proposals for the IMO’s Net Zero Framework (NZF). These proposals are positioned as offering a more pragmatic pathway that better aligns decarbonisation ambitions with demonstrated market readiness. The statement highlights that, following the deadlock at the Extraordinary MEPC session last October, both industry and Member State support for the NZF has weakened, while concerns over its practical implementation have intensified. This reflects growing unease within the sector regarding the feasibility and operational management of the current framework. At the same time, the coalition reiterates that the IMO remains the only body with the mandate, legitimacy, and global reach required to establish a level playing field—considered essential for unlocking the trillions of dollars in investment needed to decarbonise the global fleet. Notably, the alternative proposal also stipulates abandoning the concept of an IMO Fund or any similar mechanism involving direct revenue collection and redistribution, signalling a shift toward less centralized financial instruments. MEPC 84 is scheduled to conclude on May 1.
The market remains highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Suppliers continue to limit volumes amid concerns that any rapid normalization of supply may not be matched by corresponding demand, potentially resulting in the accumulation of high-cost inventories. This strategy is sustaining tight availability while reinforcing a cautious and risk-averse supply stance. We expect global bunker indices to maintain their upward trajectory in the coming week, supported by the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions and the increasing likelihood of a return to direct military confrontation.
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