Product Tanker Market Adapting to The New Market Realities
Hellenic Shipping News
he product tanker market has been adapting to the new market reality that has been shaping after the war in Iran. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Gibson said that “the conflict in Iran concludes its eighth week and tanker markets are adapting to the new reality. In the East, clean exports are so far this month averaging the lowest levels in over a decade, in large part due to nearly inexistent exports from the Middle East Gulf (MEG), but also due to a lack of feedstock, especially for Asian refiners, alongside protectionist policies barring exports from some countries. In contrast to this, West of Suez clean exports are near record monthly highs.
According to Gibson, “the MR market is proving to be quite resilient to the loss of volumes in the East, recovering from a significant drop in earnings a few weeks into the Iran War. As mentioned in last week’s report, high versatility and a lower dependence on the MEG market has helped to insulate this size. Since the war, clean volumes carried on MRs have shrunk but have been far less impacted than LR2s in particular. Earnings have even increased in recent weeks here, as low vessel resupply, high bunker prices, and volatile arbs have kept rates supported. Freight rates on the route to Australia, the country with the highest per capita consumption of diesel globally, have been especially strong due to the aforementioned factors”.
The shipbroker added that “in the West, a significant number of MRs were taken out of the Atlantic Basin for a prolonged period, and consequently, the trend of this size class moving West has slowed down and even reversed slightly in recent weeks. We now see just over 30 MRs more positioned in the West than prior to the war (around 2% of the mainstream fleet). US diesel arbs to Europe, West Africa, and Latin America are currently open, and whilst being volatile, have been supportive of exports. The West African market has also been pulling MRs south from the Mediterranean, with freight rate differentials between UKC to the US Atlantic Coast and UKC to West Africa at over WS150 over the last couple of days. This comes as the Dangote refinery is seemingly firing on all cylinders, with total exports from the refinery at 440kbd so far this month, 60% of which on MRs. Export volumes in Northwest Europe have so far stayed strong”.
“So, what is the outlook for MRs? In the West, in the near-term the market is poised to remain robust, especially in the US. The most recent EIA data shows diesel stocks continuing to draw in the US Gulf, keeping exports near record highs. Whilst inventories so far remain rangebound in PADD3, exports can’t continue at this pace forever. The US administration has today extended the Jones Act waiver for another 90 days; a factor which may be very mildly beneficial to MRs. Across the pond in Northwest Europe, extremely high prompt prices for oil are impacting upon refining margins, possibly weighing on runs and consequently exports. So far, exports here have been holding up well, and with gasoline inventories at healthy levels could remain supported in the near term. However, there are reportedly just six weeks of jet fuel stocks left in the ARA hub, and demand destruction efforts are kicking in with a significant number of flights cancelled. Total CPP stocks in ARA are now at a 12-year low, hinting at significant strain on the system. Refineries have in some cases postponed maintenance to run hard and capture very high margins, making outages more likely, and in any case eventually turnarounds will have to be carried out. Most arbs still incentivise CPP to move East, making it more difficult for vessels to position themselves to the West, despite the large earnings differential. This is further exemplified by the differential in TC rates for chartering an MR in the East compared with the West, with western vessels earnings around $6,000/day more for 1-year charters”, Gibson said.
“In the East, as has been repeated ad nauseam, if this conflict continues, more refineries will run low on feedstock, and CPP exports will continue to decline, weighing on the market. The news of a renewed US sanctions waiver for Russian crude, and consequent increased crude imports into India and Southeast Asia may keep refining runs here maintained to some degree. In case of a normalisation of trade by the middle of the year, the IEA doesn’t see Middle Eastern refining runs return to pre-war levels in 2026, and the rest of Asia will only recover by Q4. Trade inefficiencies and vessel repositioning will remain supportive factors, but the lack of physical flows will provide continuous downward pressure and a negative outlook for this market so long as Hormuz remains closed”, Gibson concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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