The Liberia-flagged tanker Shenlong Suezmax, loaded with Saudi Arabian crude, arrives at a port after transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid supply disruptions linked to the U.S-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Mumbai, India, March 12, 2026. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas
Saudi Arabia Set For Oil Windfall After Hormuz Boosts Prices
May 1, 2026 (Bloomberg) –The blockade of the
is creating an economic split among oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, with Saudi Arabia and Oman set for a windfall and others including the United Arab Emirates seeing a drop in petrodollar income.
Saudi Arabia is gaining a revenue edge over most of its Gulf Arab neighbors as it is able to divert the bulk of crude exports to the Red Sea. Higher prices more than compensated for lost shipments through the strait, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The UAE, by contrast, is likely suffering a steep fall in oil income, as its own detoured barrels only partially mitigate the impact from Hormuz’s closure.
Goldman estimates weekly oil revenue rose 10% relative to pre-war levels in Saudi Arabia and fell around 25% in the UAE, Middle East and North Africa analyst Farouk Soussa wrote in a note published last week.
The divergence may feed into the intensifying rivalry between the Middle East’s two biggest economies, which was at the heart of UAE’s shock decision to
. Free from quotas imposed by the Saudi-dominated group of oil producing nations, the UAE can — once the Hormuz strait reopens — pump more crude and monetize its reserves before demand tapers off with the energy transition.
The overall financial implications of the war on one of the world’s most important energy-exporting regions are severe. The six Gulf Cooperation Council members are losing about $700 million in oil revenue every day the strait is closed, Goldman said in a separate note on March 20.
Since the war began in late February, Riyadh has rerouted around 4 million barrels of oil a day to its
, which connects fields to the port of Yanbu. The UAE ramped up oil shipments through its
that empties beyond Hormuz. It loaded about 2 million barrels each day in March, still only half what it was exporting in February.
Oman, which has its oil ports outside of the strait, hasn’t had to cut exports and has seen its revenue surge by 80% since the conflict erupted, Goldman estimates. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq are in the worst positions. Their income from oil and natural gas has cratered as they have little way of bypassing Hormuz.
“The war is splitting the region into winners and losers,” according to Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist for Bloomberg Economics.
MIDEAST INSIGHT: Hormuz Crisis Splits Oil Winners and Losers
The difference in oil revenue is reflected in the performance of GCC countries’ stocks. Omani and Saudi equities are easily outperforming those of the other four states.
Crude prices have jumped since the start of the
, which led to an almost complete shutdown of the waterway through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows previously transited. Global benchmark Brent traded above $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It’s eased to $108 but is still up almost 80% in 2026.
Oil revenues only partially reflect the fallout from war. Iran’s airstrikes across the Gulf states, in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, damaged their infrastructure and hit their non-oil economies as tourists and other visitors stayed away. Goldman estimates the UAE’s annualized fiscal surplus of 6% of gross domestic product before the war has almost entirely been erased and sees only a marginal improvement of 1 percentage point in Saudi Arabia’s deficit.
The war has led to Oman’s fiscal balance swinging from a deficit of 7% of GDP to a surplus of 8%, according to Soussa. Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait now have deficits of 17%, 20% and 40% respectively, he estimates.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the GCC’s fiscal balance having deteriorated by around 3.6% of GDP during the war.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar can weather the impact of the conflict using their large foreign reserves and wealth funds, Bloomberg’s Daoud said. Bahrain and Iraq don’t have that luxury and depend heavily on oil revenues for basic fiscal stability.
If the blockade is lifted in the short term, Goldman’s Soussa notes, some of the damage to public finances may be reversed.
Saudi Aramco’s first-quarter corporate results, due May 10, may offer more evidence of the kingdom’s resilience.
The oil giant is expected to post its highest profit since the third quarter of 2023, according to the Bloomberg consensus of analyst estimates.
Net income is forecast to hit $32 billion in the period, with higher prices and seasonally lower costs offsetting the drop in production, Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote.
Since the war began, sovereign and corporate borrowers in Qatar and Kuwait, typically infrequent issuers in the global bond market, raised billions of dollars through private sales, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Bahrain turned to the UAE for a currency swap of $5.4 billion.
UAE issuers, including Abu Dhabi, also tapped markets, though less heavily than in the same period a year earlier. Saudi Arabia, usually the region’s biggest borrower, scaled back issuances.
For the GCC as a whole, Goldman estimates the net government borrowing requirement has doubled from around $1.7 billion a week to $3.5 billion. “We think this will prompt authorities to continue to seek to optimize funding sources as long as the disruption lasts,” it said.
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