Strait of Hormuz traffic still at just 5% of pre-war levels: Why shipping remains crippled despite ceasefire
Nearly three weeks after a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with traffic still nowhere close to pre-conflict levels. The slowdown highlights the continued instability in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors despite a pause in direct hostilities.
Before the conflict began in March, between 130 and 140 vessels crossed the strait every 24 hours. That volume has dropped sharply, and recovery has been slow and uneven.
Ship movement remains extremely limited
Data from MarineTraffic shows that a significant number of vessels remain stuck across the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Only a small number of ships are currently navigating through the passage, most of them flying the Iranian flag.
According to the Hormuz Strait Monitor, just seven vessels completed transit in the past 24 hours, with three more in the process of crossing as of 10:40 IST. The figures underline how restricted movement remains in the waterway.
Visual tracking data indicates a clear divide in traffic. Tankers carrying oil, gas and chemicals are marked separately from cargo vessels such as container ships and bulk carriers, both of which have seen reduced movement.
Energy flows disrupted as blockade persists
The continued slowdown is linked to Iran’s strategy of restricting movement through the strait, a chokepoint that handles a major share of global energy supply.
By choking off 20% of global oil and 20% of LNG, Iran is attempting to manufacture a global energy crisis so severe that the international community, specifically the EU and major Asian powers, will pressure Washington to return to the negotiating table.
The impact is being felt most acutely in Asia. Around 75% of the oil and 59% of LNG passing through the strait is bound for four countries: China, India, Japan and South Korea.
Prices rise amid fears of escalation
The disruption has already pushed up energy prices. Brent crude has climbed to around $100 per barrel, with some analysts warning that prices could surge to $300 per barrel if the conflict escalates further into a full-scale infrastructure war.
The uncertainty surrounding shipping routes and supply chains continues to drive volatility in global markets.
Brief reopening followed by renewed restrictions
There was a brief moment of optimism earlier this month.
On April 17, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was “fully open” to commercial shipping following a ceasefire in Lebanon. US President Donald Trump acknowledged the development but maintained that US naval restrictions targeting Iranian-linked vessels would remain in place.
The situation changed quickly. Within a day, Iran reinstated restrictions, citing continued US actions and alleged violations of ceasefire conditions.
Limited signs of recovery
There have been small signs of movement. News18 reported that the first LNG shipment successfully passed through the strait, marking the first such transit since the conflict began. However, this remains an exception rather than a sign of normalisation.
For now, shipping activity continues to operate at a fraction of its usual capacity, with large numbers of vessels still waiting for clearance.
Uncertainty continues to weigh on global trade
The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is not just a regional issue but a global concern. As one of the most vital energy transit routes, any sustained slowdown has far-reaching consequences for supply chains, energy security and economic stability.
With restrictions still in place and tensions unresolved, a full recovery in shipping traffic appears unlikely in the near term.
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